The World Trade Organization (WTO) has warned that global trade growth in the first quarter could be modest. The main reason appears to be current expectations and the impending economic downturn.
According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), global merchandise trade growth slowed in the last quarter of 2022 and is expected to remain weak in the first quarter of this year. The WTO released a study entitled World Merchandise Trade Barometer. According to the study, world merchandise trade growth slowed in the last quarter of 2022 and is expected to remain weak in the first quarter of this year.
Growth May Slow
According to the survey, the WTO Goods Trade Barometer, which had reached 96.2 points in the last edition, fell to 92.2.
According to the survey, the volume of world merchandise trade increased significantly in the third quarter of 2022, up 5.6% from the same period last year. According to the survey, global annual growth in the first three quarters of last year was 4.4%, higher than the 3.5% growth rate forecast by the WTO for October 2022.
Will The Decline Continue In 2023?
According to the analysis, while leading indicators suggest that quarterly trade volume growth will turn negative in the fourth quarter of 2022, annual trade volume growth is in line with forecasts.
It was noted that the expected lag in the trade might be temporary as container capacity at Chinese ports begins to recover.
Vehicle Production Sector Grows Against Expectations
All of the barometer’s component indexes remained below trend, with the exception of the automotive products index, which rose to 105.8 points as sales and production statistics from the U.S., Europe, and Japan offset declines in China.
The export orders index remained below trend at 97.4 points, indicating an increase in the near future, while the indices for container shipping, air freight, electronic components, and raw materials were also below trend.
In the barometer, values above 100 indicate above-trend growth, while values below 100 indicate below-trend growth. The WTO World Trade Barometer is published four times a year.
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